Stollenwerk, N., Aguiar, M., Mateus, L., Rocha, F., Skwara, U. and Ghaffari, P. (2015). Prediction and predictability in population biology: noise and chaos. Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena 10(2): 142-164.

Aguiar, M., Rocha, R., Pessanha, J.E.M., Mateus, L. and Stollenwerk, N. (2015). Carnival or football, is there a real risk for acquiring dengue fever in Brazil during holidays seasons. Nature Scientific Reports 5: 8462

Aguiar, M., Paul, R., Sakuntabhai, A. and Stollenwerk, N. (2014). Are we modeling the correct data set? Minimizing false predictions for dengue fever in Thailand. Epidemiology and Infection 142(11), 2447-2459.

Kooi W. B., Aguiar, M. and Stollenwerk, N. (2014). Analysis of an asymmetric two-strain dengue model. Mathematical Biosciences 248: 128-139.

Rocha, F., Aguiar, M., Souza, M. and Stollenwerk, N. (2013). Time scale separation and center manifold analysis describing vector borne diseases dynamics. International Journal of Computer Mathematics 90(10): 2105-2125.

Aguiar, M., Kooi, W.B., Rocha, F., Ghaffari, P. and Stollenwerk, N. (2013). How much complexity is needed to describe the fluctuations observed in dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence data? Ecological Complexity 16: 31-40.

Kooi W.B., Aguiar, M. and Stollenwerk, N. (2012). Bifurcation analysis of a family of multi-strain epidemiological models. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics 252: 148-158.

Aguiar, M., Stollenwerk, N. and Kooi, W.B. (2012). Scaling of stochasticity in dengue hemorrhagic fever epidemics. Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena 7(3): 1-11.

Stollenwerk, N., Aguiar, M., Ballesteros, S., Boto, J., Kooi, W.B. and Mateus, L. (2012). Dynamic noise, chaos and parameter estimation in population biology. Interface Focus 2: 156-169.

Aguiar, M., Ballesteros, S., Kooi, B.W. and Stollenwerk, N. (2011). The role of seasonality and import in a minimalistic multi-strain dengue model capturing differences between primary and secondary infections: complex dynamics and its implications for data analysis. Journal of Theoretical Biology  289: 181-196.

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