Stollenwerk, N., Aguiar, M., Mateus, L., Rocha, F., Skwara, U. and Ghaffari, P. (2015). Prediction and predictability in population biology: noise and chaos.Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena,10, 141-164.
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1051/mmnp/201510210

Aguiar, M., Rocha, R., Pessanha, J.E.M., Mateus, L. and Stollenwerk, N. (2015). Carnival or football, is there a real risk for acquiring dengue fever in Brazil during holidays seasons. Nature Scientific Reports, 5 :8462; DOI:10.1038/srep08462.
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/srep08462

Aguiar, M., Paul, R., Sakuntabhai, A. and Stollenwerk, N. (2014). Are we modeling the correct data set? Minimizing false predictions for dengue fever in Thailand. Epidemiology and Infection,142, 2447-59.
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268813003348

Kooi W. B., Aguiar, M. and Stollenwerk, N. (2014). Analysis of an asymmetric two-strain dengue model. Mathematical Biosciences,248, 128-139.
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2013.12.009

Rocha, F., Aguiar, M., Souza, M. and Stollenwerk, N. (2013). Time scale separation and center manifold analysis describing vector borne diseases dynamics.International Journal of Computer Mathematics,90, 2105-2125.
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/00207160.2013.783208

Aguiar, M., Kooi, W.B., Rocha, F., Ghaffari, P. and Stollenwerk, N. (2013). How much complexity is needed to describe the fluctuations observed in dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence data? Ecological Complexity,16, 31-40.
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2012.09.001

Kooi W.B., Aguiar, M. and Stollenwerk, N. (2012). Bifurcation analysis of a family of multi-strain epidemiological models. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 252, 148-158.
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cam.2012.08.008

Aguiar, M., Stollenwerk, N. and Kooi, W.B. (2012). Scaling of stochasticity in dengue hemorrhagic fever epidemics. Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena,7, 1-11.
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1051/mmnp/20127301

Stollenwerk, N., Aguiar, M., Ballesteros, S., Boto, J., Kooi, W.B. and Mateus, L. (2012). Dynamic noise, chaos and parameter estimation in population biology.Interface Focus, 2, 156-169.
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1098/rsfs.2011.0103

Aguiar, M., Ballesteros, S., Kooi, B.W. and Stollenwerk, N. (2011). The role of seasonality and import in a minimalistic multi-strain dengue model capturing differences between primary and secondary infections: complex dynamics and its implications for data analysis. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 289, 181-196. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.08.043